Publications
2024
Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2024). Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 20(2), 113-125. doi:10.1515/jqas-2023-0082
The Dependence of Online Gambling Businesses on High-Spending Customers: Quantification and Implications.
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2024). The Dependence of Online Gambling Businesses on High-Spending Customers: Quantification and Implications.. Journal of gambling studies. doi:10.1007/s10899-024-10329-z
Operational Research: methods and applications
Petropoulos, F., Laporte, G., Aktas, E., Alumur, S. A., Archetti, C., Ayhan, H., . . . Zhao, X. (2024). Operational Research: methods and applications. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 75(3), 423-617. doi:10.1080/01605682.2023.2253852
Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model
Holmes, B., & McHale, I. G. (2024). Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 302-312. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.03.002
2023
A flexible mixed model for age-dependent performance: application to golf
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2023). A flexible mixed model for age-dependent performance: application to golf. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS. doi:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad065
A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests
Holmes, B., McHale, I. G., & Zychaluk, K. (2023). A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 39(2), 623-640. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.007
Operational Research: Methods and Applications
2022
'Form is temporary, class is permanent': identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf
Baker, R., & McHale, I. G. (2022). 'Form is temporary, class is permanent': identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf. JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN SPORTS, 18(4), 241-251. doi:10.1515/jqas-2022-0051
Female jockeys- what are the odds?
Cashmore, V., Coster, N., Forrest, D., McHale, I., & Buraimo, B. (2022). Female jockeys- what are the odds?. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, 202, 703-713. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.08.012
Estimating transfer fees of professional footballers using advanced performance metrics and machine learning
McHale, I. G., & Holmes, B. (2022). Estimating transfer fees of professional footballers using advanced performance metrics and machine learning. European Journal of Operational Research. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.033
2021
Television audience demand for football: disaggregation by gender, age and socio-economic status
Buraimo, B., Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., & Tena, J. D. (2021). Television audience demand for football: disaggregation by gender, age and socio-economic status. In A Modern Guide to Sports Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781789906530.00013
ARMCHAIR FANS: MODELLING AUDIENCE SIZE FOR TELEVISED FOOTBALL MATCHES
Buraimo, B., Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., & Tena, J. D. (2021). ARMCHAIR FANS: MODELLING AUDIENCE SIZE FOR TELEVISED FOOTBALL MATCHES. European Journal of Operational Research. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2021.06.046
Transmission of Problem Gambling Between Adjacent Generations
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2021). Transmission of Problem Gambling Between Adjacent Generations. JOURNAL OF GAMBLING STUDIES, 37(2), 711-722. doi:10.1007/s10899-020-09977-8
2020
Plus-Minus Player Ratings for Soccer
Kharrat, T., McHale, I. G., & Peña, J. L. (2020). Plus-Minus Player Ratings for Soccer. European Journal of Operational Research, 283(2), 726-736. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.026
UNSCRIPTED DRAMA: SOCCER AUDIENCE RESPONSE TO SUSPENSE, SURPRISE AND SHOCK
Tena Horrillo, J. D. D., Forrest, D., McHale, I., & Buraimo, B. (2020). UNSCRIPTED DRAMA: SOCCER AUDIENCE RESPONSE TO SUSPENSE, SURPRISE AND SHOCK. Economic Inquiry, 58(2), 881-896. doi:10.1111/ecin.12874
2019
Using statistics to detect match fixing in sport
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2019). Using statistics to detect match fixing in sport. IMA JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT MATHEMATICS, 30(4), 431-449. doi:10.1093/imaman/dpz008
Flexible Regression Models for Count Data Based on Renewal Processes: The Countr Package
Kharrat, T., Boshnakov, G. N., McHale, I., & Baker, R. (2019). Flexible Regression Models for Count Data Based on Renewal Processes: The Countr Package. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL SOFTWARE, 90(13), 1-35. doi:10.18637/jss.v090.i13
Forecasting in sports
McHale, I., & Swartz, T. (2019). Forecasting in sports. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 35(2), 710-711. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.01.002
On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union
Scarf, P., Parma, R., & McHale, I. (2019). On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 273(2), 721-730. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021
A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket
Asif, M., & McHale, I. G. (2019). A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 35(2), 634-640. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.003
2018
Identifying Key Players in Soccer Teams using Network Analysis and Pass Difficulty
McHale, I. G., & Relton, S. (2018). Identifying Key Players in Soccer Teams using Network Analysis and Pass Difficulty. European Journal of Operational Research, 268(01), 339-347. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2018.01.018
Time-varying ratings for international football teams
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2018). Time-varying ratings for international football teams. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 267(2), 659-666. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042
The Use of Forensic Statistics to Identify Corruption in Sport
McHale, I. G. (2018). The Use of Forensic Statistics to Identify Corruption in Sport. In The Palgrave Handbook on the Economics of Manipulation in Sport (pp. 181-198). Springer International Publishing. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-77389-6_10
2017
Plus-Minus Player Ratings for Soccer
A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores
Boshnakov, G., Kharrat, T., & McHale, I. G. (2017). A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(2), 458-466. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.11.006
An empirical Bayes model for time-varying paired comparisons ratings: Who is the greatest women’s tennis player?
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2017). An empirical Bayes model for time-varying paired comparisons ratings: Who is the greatest women’s tennis player?. European Journal of Operational Research, 258(1), 328-333. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.043
AN ANALYSIS OF COUNTRY MEDAL SHARES IN INDIVIDUAL SPORTS AT THE OLYMPICS
Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2017). An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics. EUROPEAN SPORT MANAGEMENT QUARTERLY, 17(2), 117-131. doi:10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463
Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports
Albert, J., Glickman, M. E., Swartz, T. B., & Koning, R. H. (Eds.) (n.d.). Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports. In . Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781315166070
Player Ratings in Soccer
McHale, I. G., & Relton, S. D. (2017). Player Ratings in Soccer. In HANDBOOK OF STATISTICAL METHODS AND ANALYSES IN SPORTS (pp. 373-384). Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
2016
Making Better Decisions: Can Minimizing Frequentist Risk Help?
D. Baker, R., & McHale, I. G. (n.d.). Making Better Decisions: Can Minimizing Frequentist Risk Help?. International Journal of Statistics and Probability, 5(3), 80. doi:10.5539/ijsp.v5n3p80
An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2016). An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf. JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS, 43(3), 387-395. doi:10.1080/02664763.2015.1043869
Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers
Szczepanski, L., & McHale, I. (2016). Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 179(2), 513-533. doi:10.1111/rssa.12115
In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model
Asif, M., & McHale, I. G. (2016). In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model. International Journal of Forecasting, 32(1), 34-43. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.005
2015
Chapter 10: Determinants of national medals totals at the summer Olympic Games: an analysis disaggregated by sport
Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2015). Chapter 10: Determinants of national medals totals at the summer Olympic Games: an analysis disaggregated by sport. In The Economics of Competitive Sports (pp. 166-184). Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781783474769.00017
Determinants of national medals totals at the summer Olympic Games: an analysis disaggregated by sport
Forrest, D., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2015). Determinants of national medals totals at the summer Olympic Games: an analysis disaggregated by sport. In The Economics of Competitive Sports. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781783474769.00017
The Economics of Competitive Sports
Rodríguez, P., Késenne, S., & Koning, R. (Eds.) (2015). The Economics of Competitive Sports. In . Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781783474769
Deterministic Evolution of Strength in Multiple Comparisons Models: Who is the Greatest Golfer?
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2015). Deterministic Evolution of Strength in Multiple Comparisons Models: Who is the Greatest Golfer?. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 42(1), 180-196. doi:10.1111/sjos.12101
Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is..
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2015). Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is... Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 178(02), 481-492. doi:10.1111/rssa.12060
2014
Chapter 9: Econometric modelling of match results and scores
McHale, I., & Baker, R. (2014). Chapter 9: Econometric modelling of match results and scores. In Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football (pp. 130-140). Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781781003176.00015
Econometric modelling of match results and scores
McHale, I., & Baker, R. (2014). Econometric modelling of match results and scores. In HANDBOOK ON THE ECONOMICS OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL (pp. 130-139). Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
A dynamic paired comparisons model: Who is the greatest tennis player?
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2014). A dynamic paired comparisons model: Who is the greatest tennis player?. European Journal of Operational Research, 236(2), 677-684. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.028
A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers
McHale, I. G., & Szczepanski, L. (2014). A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 177(2), 397-417. doi:10.1111/rssa.12015
To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling
Moffatt, J., Scarf, P., Passfield, L., McHale, I. G., & Zhang, K. (2014). To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2). doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0112
2013
Happiness and Job Satisfaction in a Casino-Dominated Economy
Zeng, Z., Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Happiness and Job Satisfaction in a Casino-Dominated Economy. JOURNAL OF GAMBLING STUDIES, 29(3), 471-490. doi:10.1007/s10899-012-9318-9
Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Optimal Betting Under Parameter Uncertainty: Improving the Kelly Criterion. DECISION ANALYSIS, 10(3), 189-199. doi:10.1287/deca.2013.0271
A modified Duckworth-Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket
McHale, I. G., & Asif, M. (2013). A modified Duckworth-Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 225(2), 353-362. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.036
Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2013). Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 29(1), 122-130. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.002
2012
Gambling and Problem Gambling Among Young Adolescents in Great Britain
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2012). Gambling and Problem Gambling Among Young Adolescents in Great Britain. JOURNAL OF GAMBLING STUDIES, 28(4), 607-622. doi:10.1007/s10899-011-9277-6
On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League
McHale, I. G., Scarf, P. A., & Folker, D. E. (2012). On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League. INTERFACES, 42(4), 339-351. doi:10.1287/inte.1110.0589
Chapter 11: Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities
Koning, R. H., & McHale, I. G. (2012). Chapter 11: Estimating Match and World Cup Winning Probabilities. In International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930279.00018
Chapter 13: Explaining and Forecasting National Team Medals Totals at the Summer Olympic Games
Forrest, D., Ceballos, A., Flores, R., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2012). Chapter 13: Explaining and Forecasting National Team Medals Totals at the Summer Olympic Games. In International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930279.00020
Estimating match and World Cup winning probabilities
Koning, R. H., & McHale, I. G. (2012). Estimating match and World Cup winning probabilities. In INTERNATIONAL HANDBOOK ON THE ECONOMICS OF MEGA SPORTING EVENTS (pp. 177-193). Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
Explaining and forecasting national team medals totals at the Summer Olympic Games
Forrest, D., Ceballos, A., Flores, R., McHale, I. G., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2012). Explaining and forecasting national team medals totals at the Summer Olympic Games. In INTERNATIONAL HANDBOOK ON THE ECONOMICS OF MEGA SPORTING EVENTS (pp. 208-224). Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
Playing the lottery with a little bit of stats know-how…
McHale, I., & Baker, R. D. (2012). Playing the lottery with a little bit of stats know-how…. Significance, 9(1), 25-28. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2012.00540.x
2011
Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players by using a combination preference model for conscious selection
Baker, R., & McHale, I. G. (2011). Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players by using a combination preference model for conscious selection. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 174, 1071-1086. doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00693.x
Chapter 9: Subjective Well-being and Engagement in Sport: Evidence from England
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2011). Chapter 9: Subjective Well-being and Engagement in Sport: Evidence from England. In The Economics of Sport, Health and Happiness. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9780857930149.00014
Subjective well-being and engagement in sport: evidence from England
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2011). Subjective well-being and engagement in sport: evidence from England. In ECONOMICS OF SPORT, HEALTH AND HAPPINESS: THE PROMOTION OF WELL-BEING THROUGH SPORTING ACTIVITIES (pp. 184-199). Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches
McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2011). Modelling the dependence of goals scored by opposing teams in international soccer matches. STATISTICAL MODELLING, 11(3), 219-236. doi:10.1177/1471082X1001100303
A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results
McHale, I., & Morton, A. (2011). A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 27(2), 619-630. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.004
MAINTAINING MARKET POSITION: TEAM PERFORMANCE, REVENUE AND WAGE EXPENDITURE IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Carmichael, F., McHale, I., & Thomas, D. (2011). MAINTAINING MARKET POSITION: TEAM PERFORMANCE, REVENUE AND WAGE EXPENDITURE IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE. BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 63(4), 464-497. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.2009.00340.x
2010
Habit and long memory in UK lottery sales
McHale, I. G., & Peel, D. A. (2010). Habit and long memory in UK lottery sales. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 109(1), 7-10. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2010.07.007
Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK
McHale, I. G. (2010). Assessing the fairness of the golf handicapping system in the UK. JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES, 28(10), 1033-1041. doi:10.1080/02640414.2010.495992
2009
Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection
Baker, R. D., & McHale, I. G. (2009). Modelling the probability distribution of prize winnings in the UK National Lottery: consequences of conscious selection. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 172, 813-834. doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00599.x
2008
"Say it ain't so": Betting-related malpractice in sport
Forrest, D., McHale, I., & McAuley, K. (2008). "Say it ain't so": Betting-related malpractice in sport. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SPORT FINANCE, 3(3), 156-166. Retrieved from https://www.webofscience.com/
2007
Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?
Forrest, D., & Mchale, I. (2007). Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?. The European Journal of Finance, 13(8), 751-768. doi:10.1080/13518470701705736
Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure
McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2007). Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure. STATISTICA NEERLANDICA, 61(4), 432-445. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.2007.00368.x
Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA world rankings
McHale, I. G., & Davies Salford, S. (2007). Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA world rankings. In Statistical Thinking in Sports (pp. 77-90).
2006
Applications of a general stable law regression model
McHale, I. G., & Laycock, P. J. (2006). Applications of a general stable law regression model. JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS, 33(10), 1075-1084. doi:10.1080/02664760600746699
2005
Longshot bias: insights from the betting market on men's professional tennis
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. (2005). Longshot bias: insights from the betting market on men's professional tennis. In Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets (pp. 215-230). Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493614.009
Ranking Football Players
McHale, I., & Scarf, P. (2005). Ranking Football Players. Significance, 2(2), 54-57. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2005.00091.x
The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments
McHale, I., & Forrest, D. (2005). The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16(2), 131-140. doi:10.1093/imaman/dpi005