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2025

A modelling assessment for the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain

DOI
10.1101/2025.04.24.650264
Preprint

Simulation-based inference of the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated and under-reported disease incidence time series data.

Ogi-Gittins, I., Steyn, N., Polonsky, J., Hart, W. S., Keita, M., Ahuka-Mundeke, S., . . . Thompson, R. N. (2025). Simulation-based inference of the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated and under-reported disease incidence time series data.. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 383(2293), 20240412. doi:10.1098/rsta.2024.0412

DOI
10.1098/rsta.2024.0412
Journal article

Corrigendum to "Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model" Preventive Vet. Med. 219 (2023) 106019.

Hill, E. M., Prosser, N. S., Brown, P. E., Ferguson, E., Green, M. J., Kaler, J., . . . Tildesley, M. J. (2025). Corrigendum to "Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model" Preventive Vet. Med. 219 (2023) 106019.. Preventive veterinary medicine, 236, 106408. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106408

DOI
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106408
Journal article

2024

Mathematics in medical and life sciences: special issue on behavioural epidemiology

Hill, E. M., & Ngonghala, C. N. (2024). Mathematics in medical and life sciences: special issue on behavioural epidemiology. Mathematics in Medical and Life Sciences, 1(1). doi:10.1080/29937574.2024.2321740

DOI
10.1080/29937574.2024.2321740
Journal article

Introducing a framework for within-host dynamics and mutations modelling of H5N1 influenza infection in humans

DOI
10.1101/2024.09.01.24312235
Preprint

A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data.

Ogi-Gittins, I., Hart, W. S., Song, J., Nash, R. K., Polonsky, J., Cori, A., . . . Thompson, R. N. (2024). A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data.. Epidemics, 47, 100773. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100773

DOI
10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100773
Journal article

Unifying human infectious disease models and real-time awareness of population- and subpopulation-level intervention effectiveness

DOI
10.1101/2024.01.17.24301344
Preprint

Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence

DOI
10.1101/2024.01.05.24300898
Preprint

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sherratt, K., Carnegie, A. C., Kucharski, A., Cori, A., Pearson, C. A. B., Jarvis, C. I., . . . Abbott, S. (2024). Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.. Wellcome open research, 9, 12. doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19601.1

DOI
10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19601.1
Journal article

2023

Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England

Guzmán-Rincón, L. M., Hill, E. M., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M. J., & Keeling, M. J. (2023). Bayesian estimation of real-time epidemic growth rates using Gaussian processes: local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 72(5), 1413-1434. doi:10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056

DOI
10.1093/jrsssc/qlad056
Journal article

Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model.

Hill, E. M., Prosser, N. S., Brown, P. E., Ferguson, E., Green, M. J., Kaler, J., . . . Tildesley, M. J. (2023). Incorporating heterogeneity in farmer disease control behaviour into a livestock disease transmission model.. Preventive veterinary medicine, 219, 106019. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019

DOI
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106019
Journal article

A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data

DOI
10.1101/2023.09.13.23295471
Preprint

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic

DOI
10.1101/2023.06.12.544667
Preprint

Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008.

Eames, K. T. D., Tang, M. L., Hill, E. M., Tildesley, M. J., Read, J. M., Keeling, M. J., & Gog, J. R. (2023). Coughs, colds and "freshers' flu" survey in the University of Cambridge, 2007-2008.. Epidemics, 42, 100659. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100659

DOI
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100659
Journal article

Epidemiological and Health Economic Implications of Symptom Propagation: A Mathematical Modelling Investigation

DOI
10.2139/ssrn.4655020
Preprint

Incorporating Heterogeneity in Farmer Disease Control Behaviour into a Livestock Disease Transmission Model

DOI
10.2139/ssrn.4654740
Preprint

Unifying Real-Time Responses to Outbreak Information and Infectious Disease Models

DOI
10.2139/ssrn.4655076
Preprint

2022

The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Dose Separation and Dose Targeting on Hospital Admissions and Deaths from COVID-19 in England

DOI
10.1101/2022.08.22.22278973
Preprint

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.

Tildesley, M. J., Vassall, A., Riley, S., Jit, M., Sandmann, F., Hill, E. M., . . . Keeling, M. J. (2022). Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.. Royal Society open science, 9(8), 211746. doi:10.1098/rsos.211746

DOI
10.1098/rsos.211746
Journal article

Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea.

Prosser, N. S., Green, M. J., Ferguson, E., Tildesley, M. J., Hill, E. M., Keeling, M. J., & Kaler, J. (2022). Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea.. Journal of dairy science, 105(4), 3559-3573. doi:10.3168/jds.2021-21386

DOI
10.3168/jds.2021-21386
Journal article

The impacts of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic; a retrospective modelling study

DOI
10.1101/2022.01.26.22269877
Preprint

2021

Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease.

Keeling, M. J., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M. J., Hill, E. M., & Medley, G. F. (2021). Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease.. Epidemics, 37, 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526

DOI
10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526
Journal article

Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.

Hill, E. M., Prosser, N. S., Ferguson, E., Kaler, J., Green, M. J., Keeling, M. J., & Tildesley, M. J. (2021). Modelling livestock infectious disease control policy under differing social perspectives on vaccination behaviour.. doi:10.31220/agrirxiv.2021.00100

DOI
10.31220/agrirxiv.2021.00100
Journal article

Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England.

Prosser, N. S., Hill, E. M., Armstrong, D., Gow, L., Tildesley, M. J., Keeling, M. J., . . . Green, M. J. (2021). Descriptive analysis of national bovine viral diarrhoea test data in England.. doi:10.31220/agrirxiv.2021.00095

DOI
10.31220/agrirxiv.2021.00095
Journal article

SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return

Enright, J., Hill, E. M., Stage, H. B., Bolton, K. J., Nixon, E. J., Fairbanks, E. L., . . . Tildesley, M. J. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, 8(8). doi:10.1098/rsos.210310

DOI
10.1098/rsos.210310
Journal article

Correction to: Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations.

Staniszewska, S., Hill, E. M., Grant, R., Grove, P., Porter, J., Shiri, T., . . . Keeling, M. (2021). Correction to: Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations.. The patient, 14(4), 447. doi:10.1007/s40271-021-00497-0

DOI
10.1007/s40271-021-00497-0
Journal article

Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations.

Staniszewska, S., Hill, E. M., Grant, R., Grove, P., Porter, J., Shiri, T., . . . Keeling, M. (2021). Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations.. The patient, 14(4), 435-445. doi:10.1007/s40271-020-00476-x

DOI
10.1007/s40271-020-00476-x
Journal article

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

Moore, S., Hill, E. M., Tildesley, M. J., Dyson, L., & Keeling, M. J. (2021). Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.. The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 21(6), 793-802. doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00143-2

DOI
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00143-2
Journal article

Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritisation for a fixed number of vaccine doses

DOI
10.1101/2021.03.15.21253542
Preprint

Assessing the impact of secondary school reopening strategies on within-school COVID-19 transmission and absences: a modelling study

DOI
10.1101/2021.02.11.21251587
Preprint

2020

A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population: An application to SARS-CoV-2

DOI
10.1101/2020.11.18.20230649
Preprint

Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation

DOI
10.1101/2020.03.21.20040568
Preprint

Precautionary Breaks: Planned, Limited Duration Circuit Breaks to Control the Prevalence of COVID-19

DOI
10.2139/ssrn.3725627
Preprint

2019

Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

DOI
10.1101/637074
Preprint

Modelling the spread of mood

Hill, E., & House, T. (2019). Modelling the spread of mood. In B. Breidenbach, & T. Docherty (Eds.), Mood: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, New Theories (pp. 87-108). Routledge.

Chapter

2018

Spatio-temporal modelling of<i>Leishmania infantum</i>infection among domestic dogs: a simulation study and sensitivity analysis applied to rural Brazil

DOI
10.1101/418558
Preprint

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh.

Hill, E. M., House, T., Dhingra, M. S., Kalpravidh, W., Morzaria, S., Osmani, M. G., . . . Tildesley, M. J. (2018). The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh.. PLoS computational biology, 14(9), e1006439. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439

DOI
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439
Journal article

2017

How Predictable are Flu Pandemics?

Hill, E., Tildesley, M., & House, T. (2017). How Predictable are Flu Pandemics?. Significance, 14(6), 28-33. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01090.x

DOI
10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01090.x
Journal article

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian inuenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

DOI
10.1101/193177
Preprint

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk.

Hill, E. M., House, T., Dhingra, M. S., Kalpravidh, W., Morzaria, S., Osmani, M. G., . . . Tildesley, M. J. (2017). Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk.. Epidemics, 20, 37-55. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007

DOI
10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007
Journal article

Mathematical modelling approaches for spreading processes : zoonotic influenza and social contagion

Hill, E. (2017). Mathematical modelling approaches for spreading processes : zoonotic influenza and social contagion. (University of Warwick).

Thesis / Dissertation

2015