Publications
2024
Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico.
Johnson, R., Carnalla, M., Basto-Abreu, A., Haw, D., Morgenstern, C., Doohan, P., . . . Barrientos-Gutiérrez, T. (2024). Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico.. Lancet regional health. Americas, 30, 100682. doi:10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682
The interaction of disease transmission, mortality, and economic output over the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Morgenstern, C., Laydon, D. J., Whittaker, C., Mishra, S., Haw, D., Bhatt, S., & Ferguson, N. M. (2024). The interaction of disease transmission, mortality, and economic output over the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.. PloS one, 19(6), e0301785. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0301785
2023
Optimal Hospital Care Scheduling During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic
D'Aeth, J. C., Ghosal, S., Grimm, F., Haw, D., Koca, E., Lau, K., . . . Wiesemann, W. (2023). Optimal Hospital Care Scheduling During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. MANAGEMENT SCIENCE. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.4679
Health inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second wave in England: REACT-1 study
Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.
Prasad, P. V., Steele, M. K., Reed, C., Meyers, L. A., Du, Z., Pasco, R., . . . Biggerstaff, M. (2023). Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(28), e2300590120. doi:10.1073/pnas.2300590120
Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England
Eales, O., Haw, D., Wang, H., Atchison, C., Ashby, D., Cooke, G. S. S., . . . Riley, S. (2023). Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England. PLOS BIOLOGY, 21(5). doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3002118
The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia.
Johnson, R., Djaafara, B., Haw, D., Doohan, P., Forchini, G., Pianella, M., . . . Hauck, K. D. (2023). The societal value of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination in Indonesia.. Vaccine, 41(11), 1885-1891. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.01.068
Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis
Haw, D. J. J., Biggerstaff, M., Prasad, P., Walker, J., Grenfell, B., & Arinaminpathy, N. (2023). Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 19(2). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010893
2022
Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies.
Haw, D. J., Morgenstern, C., Forchini, G., Johnson, R., Doohan, P., Smith, P. C., & Hauck, K. D. (2022). Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies.. Epidemics, 41, 100644. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100644
The interaction of transmission intensity, mortality, and the economy: a retrospective analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic
Quantifying changes in the IFR and IHR over 23 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England
Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021
The new normal? Dynamics and scale of the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron epidemic in England
Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS
Haw, D. J., Forchini, G., Doohan, P., Christen, P., Pianella, M., Johnson, R., . . . Hauck, K. D. (2022). Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS. NATURE COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, 2(4), 223-233. doi:10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0
SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys
Chadeau-Hyam, M., Wang, H., Eales, O., Haw, D., Bodinier, B., Whitaker, M., . . . Elliott, P. (2022). SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccine effectiveness in England (REACT-1): a series of cross-sectional random community surveys. LANCET RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, 10(4), 355-366. doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00542-7
Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study
Elliott, P., Bodinier, B., Eales, O., Wang, H., Haw, D., Elliott, J., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2022). Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study. SCIENCE, 375(6587), 1406-+. doi:10.1126/science.abn8347
The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022
Post-peak dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022
2021
Rapid increase in Omicron infections in England during December 2021: REACT-1 study
Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant
Elliott, P., Haw, D., Wang, H., Eales, O., Walters, C. E., Ainslie, K. E. C., . . . Riley, S. (2021). Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. SCIENCE, 374(6574), 1463-+. doi:10.1126/science.abl9551
SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2
REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection
Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2
Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
D'Aeth, J. C., Ghosal, S., Grimm, F., Haw, D., Koca, E., Lau, K., . . . Miraldo, M. (2021). Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. NATURE COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, 1(8), 521-531. doi:10.1038/s43588-021-00111-1
REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021
REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant
REACT-1 round 11 report: low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community prior to the third step of the English roadmap out of lockdown
SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from January to March 2021 inferred from representative community samples
REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021
REACT-1 round 9 final report: Continued but slowing decline of prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 during national lockdown in England in February 2021
REACT-1 round 9 interim report: downward trend of SARS-CoV-2 in England in February 2021 but still at high prevalence
2020
A dynamical systems model of unorganized segregation in two neighborhoods
Haw, D. J., & Hogan, S. J. (2020). A dynamical systems model of unorganized segregation in two neighborhoods. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL SOCIOLOGY, 44(4), 221-248. doi:10.1080/0022250X.2019.1695608
Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering
Haw, D. J., Pung, R., Read, J. M., & Riley, S. (2020). Strong spatial embedding of social networks generates nonstandard epidemic dynamics independent of degree distribution and clustering. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 117(38), 23636-23642. doi:10.1073/pnas.1910181117
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
Walker, P. G. T., Whittaker, C., Watson, O. J., Baguelin, M., Winskill, P., Hamlet, A., . . . Ghani, A. C. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. SCIENCE, 369(6502), 413-+. doi:10.1126/science.abc0035
Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning
Biggerstaff, M., Dahlgren, F. S., Fitzner, J., George, D., Hammond, A., Hall, I., . . . Wu, J. T. (2020). Coordinating the real-time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning. INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES, 14(2), 105-110. doi:10.1111/irv.12705
2019
Differential mobility and local variation in infection attack rate
Haw, D. J., Cummings, D. A. T., Lessler, J., Salje, H., Read, J. M., & Riley, S. (2019). Differential mobility and local variation in infection attack rate. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 15(1). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006600
2018
A dynamical systems model of unorganized segregation
Haw, D. J., & Hogan, J. (2018). A dynamical systems model of unorganized segregation. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL SOCIOLOGY, 42(3), 113-127. doi:10.1080/0022250X.2018.1427091