SEMINAR: Research Seminar Series 

Date: Monday 2 December 2024
Time: 4-5.15pm
Place: Seminar Room 2, Management School
Open to: University of Liverpool academic staff and PhD students only, with no sign up needed

Gambling on momentum in contests

Speaker: Dr Carl Singleton, Stirling University and IZA

Abstract

With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state-contingent claims by a major bookmaker in second-by-second in-play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news.

We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a gambler: equalising goals.

Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcome increases and is substantially biased towards the team which has equalised.

But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last.

These findings illustrate that everyday investors are making systematically poor decisions after salient news.

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