The 2023 Party Conferences: long-term decisions for next year’s election

Posted on: 17 October 2023 by James Hickson in Blog

With both the Conservative and Labour party conferences visiting the North West over recent weeks, Heseltine Institute Research Associate Dr James Hickson considers what the key announcements from both parties suggest about the state of play ahead of the next general election.

Compare the conference slogans; the Conservatives offering voters ‘Long-Term Decisions for a Brighter Future’, while Labour sought to brand themselves simply as ‘Britain’s Future’. With a general election likely in the next 12 months, both parties are seeking to reassure the electorate that they can be the ones to end the era of permacrisis, and do more in government than fight fires.

Beyond these slogans, however, the announcements made at this year’s party conferences reveal two parties that are moving in different directions. This divergence is now particularly stark across three policy areas:   

Investment in infrastructure

The Conservative conference was overshadowed by speculation on the future of the HS2 rail project, with Rishi Sunak finally confirming that the link between Manchester and Birmingham will be cancelled. Some £36billion from HS2 will instead be reallocated to a speculative selection of local transport schemes dubbed ‘Network North’ – quickly criticised for not being particularly new, Northern, or much of a network.

Sunak argued that, by reinvesting the money in this way, government can “drive growth and spread opportunity” across the UK. However, government vacillation over HS2 reflects a longer-running lack of consistency towards major infrastructure projects in the UK; impacting communities, businesses, and investor confidence.  

In contrast, Labour are seeking to commission rather than cancel major infrastructure projects. The party has unveiled ambitious plans to “Get Britain Building Again”, with plans for 1.5 million new homes across the country, new development corporations, a new generation of ‘new towns’, as well as investment in roads, railways, and energy infrastructure.

Despite scant detail, Keir Starmer’s emphasis on the need for “a decade of national renewal” hints that a Labour government may be more willing to commit to long-term investment in nationally-significant infrastructure projects. However, whether Starmer will be truly willing (or able) to maintain this commitment in the face of any local opposition to specific proposals is yet to be seen.  

Devolution and levelling up

‘Levelling Up’ was central to the 2019 Conservative manifesto, which promised to rebalance the UK through a combination of state investment and greater devolution.  

Four years on, and this agenda has all but been abandoned by the Conservative party. Michael Gove, the Secretary for State for Levelling Up, mentioned the concept only once in his conference speech, as did Rishi Sunak. The party’s previous focus on the need to improve productivity across the UK’s cities has been ditched in favour of investing in the smaller towns where Conservatives will be hoping to bolster electoral support. There were also no new announcements on further devolution, despite last year’s Levelling Up White Paper proposing there should be a devolution deal in every part of England by 2030.

Meanwhile, Labour are reclaiming the levelling up project, with devolution at the heart of their agenda for government. In her conference speech, Angela Rayner pledged to devolve new powers on skills, employment support, transport, and housing; and highlighted the success of existing Mayoral Combined Authorities. Starmer, too, promised to “put communities in control”, and appears willing to back up this rhetoric with resources, pledging to address the funding crisis in local government.

Again, much more detail is required to establish where new powers, and new funding, could be devolved. But it is telling that Labour, and not the Conservatives, could enter the next election as the party of levelling up.  

The Climate Emergency and the transition to Net Zero

Environmental ambitions have also been central to previous Conservative manifestos. Cut to 2023, and Sunak prefaced his party’s conference with announcements to push back the ban of new petrol and diesel cars, and welcome the approval of a new oilfield in the North Sea. At conference, too, Transport Secretary, Mark Harper, criticised environmental policies that “hammer the motorist”, such as Greater London’s Ultra-Low Emissions Zone. Whilst the Conservatives maintain their commitment to a 2050 target for reaching Net Zero, the party appears increasingly unwilling to support the policy interventions necessary to achieve it.

Labour, for their part, have signalled they will accelerate the shift to Net Zero. Harnessing the “opportunity” of climate change is central to the party’s emerging industrial strategy, with ambitions to deliver new jobs and investment in clean energy, whilst also supporting people through this potentially disruptive transition. The question will be whether this commitment to realising the longer-term benefits of Net Zero will prove electorally persuasive, or compatible with Labour’s wider plans for growth and development.

Conclusion

With both parties claiming to offer a long-term vision for the future, it is perhaps surprising that, across these key policy areas, the Conservatives are adopting shorter-term positions with a view to immediate fiscal and electoral gain.

Meanwhile there is a sense that Labour have shifted from offering short-term critique of government to offering a long-term plan for government. One that provides a renewed sense of progress, and purpose for the state: to shepherd the country through an uncertain era of rapid change, and achieve “national renewal”.

Through investment in, and reform of, the public realm, a Keir Starmer premiership would aim to renew how the UK looks, feels, and functions in a way that could be as transformational as any Labour government since Attlee. But will voters be convinced? Labour may be ascendant in the polls, but Sunak’s shift to shorter-term electoral tactics may still help to narrow the gap before the election.