Non-Communicable Disease Modelling Projects

The NCD modelling research programme aim is to develop state of the art, evidence based simulations model to inform and support public health decision making on NCD prevention.

To achieve this, we work closely with the Food Policy Research programme to increase the relevance of our models and to inform current policy debates.

We have developed a suite of models, using different simulation approaches including cell based and comparative risk assessment, markov cohort simulation and microsimulation.

IMPACT CHD and IMPACT SEC

The IMPACT CHD family of models aims to explain past trends in coronary heart disease mortality . It covers now more than 20 countries around the world, with ongoing projects in Mexico, Argentina, Japan.

Using this model, we shown that key drivers of CHD mortality trends are risk factor level at the population level, but the picture is complex and varies across countries.

IMPACT stroke and diabetes

As part of the EU funded medchamps projects, we developed models with few data requirements to be deployed in countries with limited data. We have developed stroke models for Turkey and Tunisia, and diabetes models for the Occupied Palestine Territories, Syria, Turkey, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.

IMPACT NCD

Impact NCD is an innovative microsimulation approach that has been used to explore policy issues on cardiovascular disease prevention at individual and population level. IMPACT NCD is evolving as the core engine for the most advanced models in our programme.

IMPACT food policy model

The Impact food policy models have been developed to explore the effectiveness and cost effectviness of several food policies, including Salt, smoking , Fruit and vegetables and sugar. Recently we have updated an extended the model to a microsimulation model based on IMPACT NCD with application in the US.

IMPACT BAM

Impact BAM is a markov model developed to explore the joint dynamics of cardiovascular disease and dementia in the English population.

Multimorbidity modelling

We have developed an advanced microsimulation of multimorbidity using the IMPACT NCD framework, in collaboration with the modelling partnership with the REAL Centre at the Health Foundation, resulting in an influential Real Center Insight report on multimorbidity projections to 2040.