This article was written by Professor Jon Tongue, Department of Politics, University of Liverpool.
An overview
This local election is the biggest in recent memory in the NW, given that all except two councils, some 32 in total, are being contested and in 17 of those councils, ALL the seats are up for grabs.
- This is by far the most significant test of opinion between general elections and these are (surely) the penultimate local elections before the general election, likely to be in Autumn next year.
- Labour defends most councils (18) and needs to take some of the 10 under No Overall Control. The Conservatives defend 4 councils, all in Lancashire.
- The comparison is with 2019 when these seats were last fought/councillors were elected but the high number of all-out contests renders some of these comparisons invalid. In 2019, the Conservatives (under May) fared poorly nationally, losing 1,330 councillors nationally but Labour (under Corbyn) did not do well either, losing 84 council seats. The Lib Dems did well, gaining 704 seats.
- At the most recent NW council elections in May 2022, Labour made very modest progress, taking Rossendale from No Overall Control. Expectations are far greater.
- On the NW councils being contested, Labour holds 957 seats, the Conservatives 414, Independents 176 (a high figure) the Lib Dems 130 and the Greens 53.
- Labour needs to do very well to indicate Keir Starmer will have an overall majority at Westminster at the next general election. Labour requires a 10% swing from the Conservatives (i.e. 1 in every 10 voter needs to switch from the last general election). The opinion polls suggest this is eminently achievable (Labour ‘s lead is circa 20 percentage points, albeit with recent signs of slippage) but Starmer needs to match Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide winning swing to Labour (10.2%).
- These elections will set the political agenda. The Conservative and Labour parties will then gather in the NW (in Manchester and Liverpool respectively) this Autumn for their party conferences, which could be the last before the general election.
Ten Councils to look out for:
BOLTON: (NO OVERALL CONTROL). Labour lost overall control here in 2019, losing a total of 12 seats at the 2018-19 elections. Since then, the Conservatives have run a minority administration. Levelling-up bids to transform the town centre have been rejected. With an all-out contest of 60 seats due to boundary changes, Labour hopes to recover lost ground and at least become the largest party. There are numerous ‘District First’ councillors complicating the task. The Conservatives hold two of the town’s three parliamentary seats. LABOUR TARGET TO BECOME LARGEST PARTY
BURNLEY: (NO OVERALL CONTROL). Labour lost overall control in 2019. The party has run the council as a minority administration and needs four gains to win back overall control. Labour’s problem may be that the Conservatives are only defending 1 seat, so gains will have to come from Lib Dems Green or Independent seats. LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN
BURY (LABOUR). Always a big focus on Bury given its two Westminster marginal seats, both Conservative won in 2019 but with Christian Wakeford (Bury South) defecting to Labour. Bury and Radcliffe have both received levelling-up money. The council has been Labour held for 12 years and, whilst it would only take 3 Labour losses to remove overall control, gains are expected. LABOUR NEED TO HOLD COMFORTABLY
CHESHIRE WEST AND CHESTER (NO OVERALL CONTROL) Labour need four gains to take overall control and with the Conservatives up against it defending 28 seats this seems possible. LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN
HYNDBURN (NO OVERALL CONTROL) The type of Lancashire council Labour really needs to be winning but the party lost two seats and overall control last year. The party only needs to gain one seat to retake overall control but has been hit by defections, including of the council leader, with councillors quitting Labour to become independents. LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN
LANCASTER (NO OVERALL CONTROL) The Greens and Independents run a minority administration and the Greens hope to overtake Labour and become the largest party on the council, even though overall control seems improbable as there are numerous independents. GREEN TARGET TO BECOME THE LARGEST PARTY
LIVERPOOL (LABOUR) Should be comfortably retained by Labour (run by the party since 2010) but there are uncertainties: New wards, smaller council, defections from Labour, 13 Labour councillors not re-standing and commissioners still in the city. LABOUR TO HOLD – SIZE OF MAJORITY TO BE WATCHED
PENDLE (CONSERVATIVE) This is always marginal. The Conservatives regained overall control in 2018 by 1 seat, then lost overall control in 2019, with Labour and the Lib Dems running the council, even though the Conservatives remained the largest party. The Conservatives regained overall control in 2021 but now face a tough fight to retain, with 6 seats to defend. Key CONSERVATIVE DEFENCE and a top LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN.
STOCKPORT: (NO OVERALL CONTROL) NOC for more a decade but the Lib Dems hold the most seats, run the council as a minority administration and have a slim chance of taking overall control – their only prospect of capturing a council at this election (the Lib Dems do already hold the new Westmorland and Furness council). Labour has a very slight chance of taking overall control but trail the Lib Dems by 6 seats. The Lib Dems needs 5 gains to take overall control. An all-out contest. POSSIBLE LIB DEM TARGET TO GAIN (SLIM CHANCE)
WEST LANCASHIRE: (NO OVERALL CONTROL) Labour lost overall control in 2021 and the growth of the ‘Our West Lancashire’ (OWL) group (now at 7 seats) has been a concern for the party. However, Labour only needs three gains to regain overall control and the Conservatives look vulnerable, having to defend 14 of their 20 seats. TOP LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN
WIRRAL: (NO OVERALL CONTROL) Labour’s loss of overall control in 2019 was a surprise. Although the party has continued to run the council as a minority administration, it has fallen back further (partly due to advances by the Greens) and needs to gain 8 seats. All 66 seats are up for grabs as the council moves to all-out elections every four years. POSSIBLE LABOUR TARGET TO GAIN
Please see the below document for further information
Elections North West 2023 : Contested Councils
Professor Jon Tonge, Department of Politics, University of Liverpool
0151 794 2899
@jontonge