The case for the Northern Arc

Posted on: 4 February 2025 by Ian Wray in Blog

Focusing economic policy on the England’s Oxford Cambridge Corridor is not enough. An equivalent concept is needed for the ‘South of the North’. It would be a more realistic proposition with the prospect of early wins.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is wise to recognise the economic potential of the ‘Oxford – Cambridge Arc’, including Milton Keynes[1]. But it will be very difficult to scale up this project. There are multiple development constraints: water supply, electricity capacity, transport capacity, housing stock, local political objections - and, overwhelmingly, housing costs. Housing is just far too expensive for young families, even those with high skills. None of these problems can be solved quickly and certainly not within the current parliamentary term. It’s worth remembering that Milton Keynes was a child of Harold Wilson’s 1965 New Towns Act, designated as a new town as long ago as 1967[2]. Large scale new development is not an early win.

There is another part of England, well-endowed with economic potential, and on a much larger scale: south Manchester, south Liverpool and north Cheshire (and quite possibly embracing Leeds). This area – ‘The Northern Arc’ - has a vast inheritance of housing, north and south of the Mersey (much is still inexpensive). It has brownfield land supplies; a water surplus; extensive motorway and public transport assets; leading universities; and an international port and airport (in claiming that no new runway had been built in Britain since the 1940s the Chancellor’s speech overlooked Manchester’s second runway).

It does not need extensive new infrastructure but will need two things. First, there must be investment in the science and research base, both public and private. Second, existing infrastructure needs upgrading, especially the existing rail system – and ways must be found of getting HS2 trains to Manchester and Liverpool on existing tracks. Research recently published with my colleagues Jim Steer and David Thrower shows how these transport upgrades can be achieved[3].

And here’s the thing. Both politically and technically, using and upgrading existing infrastructure and investing in science is less expensive and relatively easily done. These are early wins, achievable by a determined Prime Minister in one, or at most two, parliamentary terms.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-vows-to-go-further-and-faster-to-kickstart-economic-growth

[2] Ian Wray, The City as Chessboard: Constructing the New City of Milton Keynes Chapter 8 in Great British Plans

[3] https://uk2070.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Why-Rail-Projects-need-a-Regional-Plan-FINAL-Edited-250211.pdf