Keywords
Climate change, health, emerging disease, vector-borne
disease, biodiversity
Expertise
Increasing global temperatures will bring changes to
weather patterns, rising sea levels and more frequent
extreme weather events. These changes will affect our
lives in many ways; in particular, food production and
human and animal health will be challenged by the
climate-change-driven emergence and spread of infectious
diseases. Liverpool has a multidisciplinary research group
of veterinary, biological and environmental scientists
developing quantitative models of how climate change
will affect the risk of both human and animal diseases.
The overriding aim of our research is to identify future
disease threats, some of which may require novel
surveillance or control tools. For example, the spread of
vector-borne diseases like bluetongue or Schmallenberg
to the UK presents opportunities in terms of new traps for
the detection and control of the midge vectors on farms.
The growing incidence of liver fluke infection in cattle
may create demand for a vaccine or new, more effective
anthelminthics.
Current activities and areas of expertise include:
•
Bluetongue – a midge-borne viral disease of
ruminants that is spreading in response to climate
change. We are developing mathematical models to
describe its spread between British farms; integrating
state-of-the-art climate models and disease models
to predict the future risk of the disease in Europe;
undertaking a programme of field work to better
understand the ecology of the insect vector; and
trialling new traps to enhance surveillance for
the vectors.
•
Liver fluke – a trematode worm parasite of sheep and
cattle (and occasionally humans) that has a snail
intermediate host. We are developing models of its
present and future incidence and distribution in Great
Britain; investigating the potential for vaccines to
control the disease; and improving understanding of
the link between immunity to liver fluke and bovine
tuberculosis.
•
Mosquito-borne arboviruses – we are determining
the influence of climate change on the epidemiology
of Japanese encephalitis, a mosquito-borne viral
disease which kills tens of thousands of children in
South and Southeast Asia each year; we are also
exploring the potential for the UK’s indigenous
mosquitoes to spread viruses.
•
Plague – we are studying the dynamics of plague in
Central Asia in collaboration with local public health
workers, where analyses have shown that predicted
future climate change will increase plague risk.
By applying current weather and climate change
forecast information for humanitarian wellbeing through
the use of application models and methodologies, we
have developed a model of malaria risk in a verifiable
quasi-operational seasonal forecasting environment.
The model allows for different future climate scenarios
and potential climate-change-driven adaptations to
disease dynamics. We have used similar modelling
techniques to assess the spread of Rift Valley fever.
Capabilities and facilities
•
Disease modelling
•
Entomology, especially the design and testing
of insect and midge traps
•
Planning and design of insect monitoring
programmes
•
Spatial epidemiology and forecasting
•
Risk mapping
•
Climate change adaptation studies and modelling.
Relevant centres and groups
•
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
Environment & Climate Change
64
3.3
Climate change and emerging infections
Also see:
Health & Wellbeing –
4.2
Emerging and zoonotic infections,
page 26
Food Security & Safety –
2.2
Impacts of climate change,
page 135
The overriding aim of our
research is to identify future
disease threats, some of
which may require novel
surveillance or control tools.
For further information
on all our specialist
centres, facilities and
laboratories
go to page
179
